extrapolate
ツール・ド・フランスの視聴者は,本当に4億人もいるのでしょうか。この記事では,この人数の真偽確かめております。記事の名で気になった単語は"extrapolate"です。『Wisdom英和辞典第三版（三省堂）』によると「（既知の事実・観察から当てはめて）推定する」という意味がありました。ODでは"Extend the application of (a method or conclusion) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable"と定義されております。知っている事実を使って,知らないことを推定することですね。結論から言うと,視聴者はもっと少ないだろうということです。また,視聴時間も,たいていの人が20分未満で,さらに1分しか見ていないというケースも多いそうです。（Ume）
Small Data: Are there four billion Tour de France viewers?
That figure is a touch higher than the 3.5 billion figure for 2013 that features on the facts and figures page of the Yorkshire Grand Depart website. Does half of the world's population really watch le Tour?
In the number's favour, we're not talking about half the world's population watching at the same time - this is a three-week event.
The Tour's organisers have so far declined to give me the source of the 3.5 billion figure, but I do have KantarSport's report to Fifa on the global audience for the 2010 World Cup.
It looked at 17 countries and extrapolated from there. It found that 2.2 billion people had watched at least 20 consecutive minutes of coverage while 3.2 billion had watched at least one minute.
While more than three quarters of the population had watched the tournament in countries such as the UK, Spain, Japan and Brazil, fewer than a third had watched in China and India.
And this is the problem - if you can't get a decent proportion in India and China, you need a lot of the rest of the world to get to four billion.
